Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 11.659771 13.346852 15.163415 17.261268 19.613498 22.165830 25.141102
2025-07-20 9.223183 11.520444 14.185181 17.490035 21.463070 26.069044 31.795399
2025-07-27 7.862610 10.392412 13.470639 17.464733 22.479885 28.535809 36.365496
2025-08-03 6.727954 9.364220 12.714285 17.241085 23.149196 30.543810 40.436407
2025-08-10 5.950688 8.663468 12.242718 17.250421 24.004431 32.716935 44.710118
2025-08-17 5.370752 8.147854 11.939447 17.413549 25.017079 35.092361 49.315619
2025-08-24 4.825454 7.611145 11.538773 17.378024 25.712918 37.033610 53.387946
2025-08-31 4.329088 7.087567 11.097885 17.227851 26.204809 38.682213 57.097968
2025-09-07 3.970748 6.730183 10.857333 17.328930 27.030662 40.801089 61.522654
2025-09-14 3.756130 6.570998 10.890982 17.822865 28.435349 43.783124 67.279343
2025-09-21 3.408595 6.163608 10.506785 17.644196 28.810419 45.271755 70.919334
2025-09-28 2.964797 5.553181 9.751374 16.826031 28.147652 45.174743 72.191261
2025-10-05 2.811216 5.426451 9.772158 17.252827 29.454707 48.115313 78.176983
2025-10-12 2.648732 5.268828 9.728722 17.569181 30.600262 50.858450 83.981465
2025-10-19 2.437798 5.002060 9.476313 17.513063 31.127953 52.648227 88.365514
2025-10-26 2.222513 4.705562 9.147375 17.299492 31.374976 53.992647 92.090444
2025-11-02 2.062200 4.497099 8.955814 17.305133 31.978133 55.917932 96.796283
2025-11-09 1.939205 4.349108 8.860624 17.470036 32.852467 58.308785 102.330865
2025-11-16 1.799795 4.154333 8.662935 17.433948 33.370030 60.123505 106.982435
2025-11-23 1.658502 3.941419 8.413633 17.283505 33.671386 61.578836 111.081204
2025-11-30 1.559485 3.807550 8.305083 17.384818 34.419402 63.807926 116.540012
2025-12-07 1.511841 3.780077 8.402502 17.880188 35.900124 67.341522 124.321099
2025-12-14 1.395732 3.589636 8.159189 17.701000 36.128760 68.708638 128.439845